India's agricultural landscape is shaped by a complex interplay of climatic, geographical, socio-economic and institutional factors, among which the southwest monsoon remains the single most influential determinant of agricultural performance. Despite sustained investments in irrigation infrastructure, mechanisation, improved seed varieties and other technological advancements since the Green Revolution, approximately 52per cent of the country's net sown area continues to depend on rainfall. Consequently, a substantial share of agricultural production remains exposed to fluctuations in the timing, intensity and spatial distribution of monsoon precipitation, reinforcing the sector's sensitivity to climatic variability.
In this context, El Niño is one of the most consequential climate phenomena affecting agricultural outcomes in India. As the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it disrupts large-scale atmospheric circulation and frequently weakens the southwest monsoon, increasing the probability of below-normal rainfall across several agricultural regions. Historical evidence illustrates this relationship, with major drought episodes including 1987, 2002, 2009 and 2015 coinciding with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Accordingly, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has consistently recognised ENSO as one of the principal drivers of inter-annual monsoon variability over the Indian subcontinent.
However, interpreting El Niño solely as a source of monsoon uncertainty no longer adequately reflects the nature of India's agricultural risk landscape. The severity of its impacts is increasingly determined by the interaction between climatic shocks and persistent structural vulnerabilities. It includes unsustainable groundwater extraction, the concentration of water-intensive cropping systems, fragmented landholdings, soil degradation, and pronounced regional disparities in irrigation access. These underlying constraints reduce the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems, amplifying the consequences of rainfall deficits far beyond seasonal production losses.
Against the backdrop of accelerating climate change, ENSO has evolved from a periodic climatic disturbance into a strategic risk multiplier for India's agricultural economy. Rising temperatures, increasing evapotranspiration, greater hydrological uncertainty and the growing frequency of extreme weather events are compounding the effects of El Niño, exposing weaknesses in water governance, agricultural planning and climate resilience. Understanding this interaction is therefore essential for food security, rural livelihoods and the long-term sustainability of India's agri-food systems.
Historical Lessons from Major El Niño Episodes
India's experience with major El Niño events demonstrates that agricultural vulnerability is determined as much by structural resilience as by climatic variability. While the intensity of ENSO impacts has varied across decades, successive El Niño episodes have consistently exposed weaknesses in irrigation systems, groundwater dependence and agricultural risk management. The 1987 drought marked one of the most severe monsoon failures in post-Independence India, while the 2002 El Niño produced a seasonal rainfall deficit of approximately 19 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA), resulting in a sharp decline in kharif production. The 2009 drought, associated with a 22 per cent rainfall deficit, intensified food inflation through lower crop output and accelerated groundwater extraction. Although the 2015 El Niño generated comparatively moderate production losses, it placed considerable stress on reservoir storage and irrigation-dependent regions. Collectively, these episodes illustrate that El Niño is not merely a meteorological anomaly but a recurring systemic risk, exposing the interaction between climatic shocks, resource constraints and the resilience of India's agricultural and food systems.
Crop Vulnerability across India's Agricultural Landscape
India's agricultural vulnerability to El Niño is shaped not only by monsoon variability but also by the structural characteristics of its cropping systems. Climatic shocks affect crops unevenly, reflecting differences in water requirements, irrigation coverage, growing seasons and physiological tolerance to moisture stress. Consequently, the implications of a weak monsoon extend beyond aggregate production losses to shifts in cropping patterns, farm incomes and regional food security.
The figure below illustrates the relative sensitivity of major crops to El Niño-induced climatic stress. Water-intensive crops such as rice and sugarcane remain particularly vulnerable owing to their high irrigation and moisture requirements, whereas relatively drought-resilient crops such as millets and pulses exhibit greater adaptive capacity under rainfall-deficit conditions. These disparities underscore the need for climate-informed agricultural planning, including crop diversification, region-specific adaptation strategies and more efficient water-resource management. Strengthening resilience across crop systems will be central to safeguarding food security, improving resource-use efficiency and enhancing the long-term sustainability of Indian agriculture under increasing climatic uncertainty.
Source: Department of Agriculture and Farmers’Welfare, FAO Crop Water Information,ICAR, NICRA and IPCC reports
Food Security, Inflation and Rural Stability
The economic significance of El Niño extends well beyond agricultural production, as climatic shocks are rapidly transmitted through India's food systems, inflation dynamics and rural economy. Reduced crop output constrains market supply, elevates food prices and weakens affordability, disproportionately affecting low-income households whose expenditure remains heavily concentrated on food. Consequently, climatic variability represents not only a production risk but also a challenge to food security and macroeconomic stability.
Historical experience demonstrates this transmission mechanism. The droughts of 2002 and 2009 contributed to sustained food inflation by reducing kharif output, tightening market supplies and increasing procurement pressures. Given the substantial weight of food in India's Consumer Price Index (CPI), weather-induced supply disruptions frequently complicate monetary policy and inflation management, a risk repeatedly highlighted in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Reports.
The repercussions extend across agricultural value chains. Lower availability of raw materials raises input costs for food processing, sugar, edible oils and textiles, while simultaneously depressing farm incomes and rural demand. Small and marginal farmers remain particularly exposed owing to limited financial resilience and greater dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods. El Niño should therefore be understood not merely as an agricultural phenomenon, but as a systemic economic risk capable of influencing food security, inflation, industrial activity and rural development simultaneously.
Reimagining Agricultural Resilience
India's response to El Niño must evolve from episodic drought relief towards a comprehensive framework of climate-risk governance. While initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), Per Drop More Crop, and ICAR's National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) have strengthened adaptive capacity. Increasing climatic volatility urgently demands institutions that anticipate risk rather than merely respond to its consequences. The effectiveness of future agricultural policy will depend less on post-disaster compensation and more on the ability to integrate climate intelligence into routine planning.
Agricultural policy should increasingly be organised around agro-climatic regions rather than administrative boundaries. Drought-prone western India, groundwater-stressed north-western states and monsoon-dependent eastern India face fundamentally different climatic risks that require region-specific adaptation strategies, differentiated cropping systems and targeted investment in water-resource management.
A formal National ENSO Response Framework, jointly coordinated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare and state governments, would institutionalise anticipatory action. Seasonal forecasts indicating moderate or strong El Niño conditions should automatically activate contingency protocols, including climate-resilient seed distribution, reservoir and irrigation management, district-level crop advisories and targeted financial support for vulnerable farmers.
Equally important is recognising groundwater as strategic agricultural infrastructure. Sustainable aquifer management, climate-responsive procurement policies and incentives for water-efficient crops should become integral components of agricultural planning. Complementing these reforms with a National Agricultural Climate Risk Observatory integrating climatic, hydrological and agricultural datasets would strengthen evidence-based decision-making, improve early warning systems and enhance the long-term resilience of India's food system.
The Emerging Geography of Agricultural Risk
The agricultural implications of El Niño in 2026–27 differ fundamentally from those of previous decades because India's climate vulnerability is becoming increasingly spatial rather than national. Historically, deficient monsoons were assessed primarily in terms of aggregate food grain production. Today, expanding irrigation networks, improved procurement systems and technological advances have strengthened resilience in some regions while exposing others to more complex risks arising from groundwater depletion, ecological degradation and limited adaptive capacity. Consequently, the greatest vulnerability now lies not where rainfall deficits are necessarily largest, but where climatic variability intersects with structural resource constraints and weak institutional preparedness. Future El Niño impacts are therefore likely to manifest less through nationwide production shortfalls than through widening regional disparities in agricultural productivity, water security, farm incomes and food-system resilience. The central policy challenge is no longer preventing a national agricultural crisis, but managing geographically differentiated climate risks through targeted, place-based adaptation strategies and resilient agricultural governance.
Way Forward
El Niño will remain one of the most significant climatic risks confronting Indian agriculture, but the country's long-term vulnerability is increasingly shaped by structural rather than meteorological factors. The interaction between climatic variability, groundwater depletion, resource-intensive cropping systems and uneven adaptive capacity now presents a more complex policy challenge than monsoon variability alone. While India has strengthened its agricultural resilience through improved forecasting, expanded irrigation, larger food grain reserves and more robust institutional mechanisms, these gains must be complemented by a transition from reactive drought management to anticipatory climate-risk governance. The future resilience of Indian agriculture will therefore depend on the behaviour of the monsoon, on the capacity of public institutions to integrate climate intelligence, and on sustainable resource management and region-specific adaptation into agricultural policy. In an era of increasing climatic uncertainty, resilience will be measured less by the ability to respond to crises than by the ability to anticipate and mitigate them before they emerge.
Cover picture credit: Pexels
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